California Finds Out What Happens When Restaurant Pay Goes Up

And there's some more sobering news about dining habits

Jun 16, 2024

Hello, and welcome to the CulinaryWoman Newsletter! A Happy Father’s Day to the dads among our readers. (Scroll down for some data on Father’s Day dining.)

I’m happy to see so many new readers and thank you so much to our returning subscribers. This month marks CW’s fourth birthday and I appreciate the chance to bring it to you.

California: You Could Have Seen It Coming

Back in April, California raised the minimum wage for many fast food workers to $20 an hour. The move was a victory for the living wage movement, which has pushed for employees to be paid more, and represented a 25 percent increase from California’s previous minimum wage for fast food employees of $16 an hour.

But the effort is already having an effect on business. I told you last week that Rubio’s was closing a number of its outlets in California, and it is likely to be followed by other companies.

A survey by Placer.ai says chains already have raised their menu prices, from single digits to more than 10 percent. Meanwhile, foot traffic at many chains plummeted in April and May compared with year-ago levels.

At McDonald’s in California, visits were about 2.5 percent lower than the chain’s national average. Visits to Burger King dropped 3.86 percent, Wendy’s fell 3.24 percent, and Jack in the Box saw visits drop about 0.8 percent.

Even In-N-Out Burger, whose burgers draw a more upscale customer base than its competitors, saw visits fall 2.59 percent, according to Placer.ai.

A number of analysts believe that the price increases in fast food actually could benefit value-focused sit down restaurants such as Olive Garden, Buffalo Wild Wings and Chili’s. If customers are going to spend that much on fast food, the reasoning goes, they might as well go somewhere and get waited on.

Making a tough call

However, there’s evidence that when faced with the higher prices, diners are deciding to eat out less frequently. And in dire cases, they might not have a meal at all.

I wrote for Food & Wine about a pair of surveys that explored how diners’ attitudes towards eating out are changing, as well as their view of tipping.

A study by Intuit Credit Karma, which provides information about financial products, says that more than one-quarter of the people it surveyed said they have skipped meals or sacrificed other spending due to rising costs.

Some 28 percent said they are putting off paying for necessities, such as rent or other bills, to afford groceries — while 27 percent say they are occasionally skipping meals. Another 18 percent have applied for or have considered applying for food stamps and other types of assistance, and 15 percent rely on or have considered visiting food banks for their groceries.

Please, if you feel generous, support a local food bank with donations of food or cash. Here in Ann Arbor, I support Food Gatherers. In New Orleans, I supported Second Harvest and the Nola Fridges.

According to the study, many are changing their food shopping habits. About 37 percent say they are now shopping at discount grocers versus big-name supermarkets. About one-quarter of respondents are buying less healthy food for themselves and their families because it is what they can afford.

Almost half of those surveyed, about 44 percent said they feel financially unstable. The figure is even higher for people with household incomes of less than $50,000; about 56 percent said their finances felt rocky.

Tips remain flat

On another topic, those tip screens on point of sale technology have now become familiar. That doesn’t mean they are popular.

A survey by Bankrate found that 34 percent of respondants hate the pre-populated tip screens that pop up at coffee shops, food trucks, and elsewhere.

Only 14 percent said the tip screens prompt them to tip more than they’d normally offer on their own. About 25 percent said they tip less if prompted on a screen. Two-thirds of the people surveyed (67 percent) say they base their tip on the quality of service, versus an electronic nudge.

Toast, which offers point-of-sale technology, among other services, said that tipping continues to be flat. In the first three months of 2024, total restaurant tips were 18.9 percent — the same as in the last three months of 2023.

Toast said sit-down restaurant tips remained flat at 19.4 percent in the first quarter of 2024, as were quick-service restaurant tips, which averaged 16 percent in the same period.

In fact, total average tips and tips at full-service restaurants have been basically unchanged for the past year. Quick-service restaurant tips have hovered between 16.1 percent and 16 percent since spring 2023.

That’s a lot of data to observe, but a few things are pretty clear. Unless your business focuses exclusively on wealthy customers immune from higher costs, you will feel the pinch, as we are all feeling it, too.

Some Father’s Day Dining Trends

Toast was kind enough to send along some data on dining out today with dads, and I found many bullet points to share with you. These findings are based on Father’s Day, 2023.

BBQ sales increased 96 percent compared with a typical day in June and steak sales went up 53 percent -- many Dads are carnivores!
The average Father's Day bill was $112, or 16 percent higher than on an average Sunday.
Omelet sales went up 204% compared with an average June day, which indicates that like many mothers, dads get taken out for brunch.
Salad sales decreased 26% compared with an average day in June.
However, the average check was 12 percent lower on Father's Day than on Mother's Day. Toast thinks smaller groups of immediate family members dine out on Father's Day, versus the multi-generational tributes for mothers.
And Dads like treats. Pastry and dessert sales were 62 percent higher than on a typical Sunday.

Hoping you will treat, or call, or have positive memories of your dad today.

Prue Leith Tries New Technology With Her Latest Cookbook

I’m a big fan of Prue Leith, the British restaurant and cooking legend who is a judge on The Great British Bake Off. One of my most prized possessions is a copy of Leith’s All-Party Cookbook, published in 1972, which I purchased in New Orleans several years ago.

Dame Prue’s most recent book, Bliss on Toast, was a big hit in both Britain and the United States. Her next cookbook, which comes out in October, is Life’s Too Short To Stuff A Mushroom. You can pre-order it here.

The title comes from the late Shirley Conran, and she’s taking a slightly different approach with this book.

It has 80 relatively simple recipes, with accompanying kitchen shortcuts and hacks. Every recipe comes with a tip, and in a modern twist, QR codes leading more than 25 videos, to help you learn a skill or save time.

Dame Prue turned 84 this year, but she’s not slowing down. What with her culinary career, television career and lines of clothing, jewelry and eyeglasses, she’s a role model for mature entrepreneurs.

This Photo Made Me Smile

Keeping Up With CulinaryWoman

A reminder that I’m speaking in nothern Michigan next Wednesday at the Bay View Association. You can order tickets here. It would be wonderful to see you, and please come and say hello if you attend my talk.

I was super honored this week to star on the menu at Side Biscuit in Ann Arbor, where the flavor of the week is Strawberry Sumac. You can enjoy a MAMma Jamma biscuit (aka strawberry shortcake) or Micki’s Strawberry Rodeo, a sandwich with chicken tenders. Everything was tasty. Get some if you are hankering for wings or strawberries.

Here are some ways to reach me.

Website: www.michelinemaynard.com
Email: culinarywoman (@) gmail dot com
LinkedIn: Micheline Maynard
Threads and Instagram: (@) michelinemaynard
Etsy shop: City Tips Vintage

I’ll be back tomorrow with Red Beans & Advice for our paid subscribers. It’s a special podcast edition. In it, I’m going to share some of my tips for finding enjoyable food places while you’re on a road trip.

Have a wonderful Sunday and see you soon.